2005 Indy Prognostication

Sunday marks the 89th running of the Indianapolis 500. Defending champion and stupid way of hat wearing Buddy Rice will not be there to defend his title. With Rice out only Julio, Kenny Brack and Buddy Lazier have won the race before and as you all know, Buddy doesn’t count.

So who will win the race this year? Let’s take a look at the field and see if we can narrow it down.

Andretti/Green Racing has just about put the kibosh on competition in the IRL over the past year. TK won the title last season and Gentleman Dan Wheldon has won 3 of the 4 races so far this year. Only Sam Hornish Jr. has kept AGR off the top of the podium for the season. TK is my pick to win the race and is starting from the pole. He knows his way around and is just so hard-nosed about it. Wheldon failed to impress during qualifying and there are all kinds of rumors about his tenure with the team. With that being said he has won three of the four races this season and I really doubt if Little Michael is going to show him the door. Dario “Mr. Judd” Franchitti seems to have what it takes to win races at this level, but I don’t see him taking Indy. He seems to grow bored or disinterested towards the end of oval races. Finally Bryan Herta”bees” rounds out this team. Herta has to be considered somewhat of a disappointment on this team. He doesn’t qualify very well and is pretty much at a loss on the ovals. His one run at St. Pete didn’t exactly paint him as the all fire hot road racer either. I think it is safe to say he will not win although he definitely has the equipment.

Rahal/Letterman Racing are the defending champs and are anxious to keep it that way. Danica Patrick is by far the most popular driver on the circuit and is rounding into her groove at just the right time. She was on the pole in Japan and is in P4 for the 500. She may win the 500 in the future, but I don’t see it this year for her. Kenny Brack is back. Kenny replaces Buddy Rice for at least Indy. He returns to the IRL for the first time since his horrific crash in the season ender at Texas in 2003. He proved to be a quick study this week as he qualified fastest of everyone on Saturday. The only question will be Kenny’s stamina. I think he is over the crash mentally, but physically this is a long race. He’s done it before and you can’t teach experience. Finally Vitor Meira rounds out the team. Meira has quietly gone about his business in the face of the media blitz with Danica and Kenny. His work alone makes me like his chances Sunday. His talent just may take him to the top in great equipment.

Panther Racing has three cars this year, although the Buddy Lazier effort is kind of an offshoot of the main team. Tomas Scheckter has a heavy right foot and it has got him in some trouble over his career in the IRL. However a more poised and mature Tomas may be reaching his potential at just the right moment. IF, and it is a big one, if he can stay out of trouble on the track and have good clean pit stops he will win the race. Not everyone can say that. Tomas Enge has been so-so this month but has run many laps getting ready for the race. I like the way Enge drives, but I don’t see this rookie as a threat for the Borg-Warner. Buddy Lazier is the 1996 winner, but those days are long ago. This team is one of the lower budgeted teams, but they have a lot of heart. If they can keep the Chevy under them all day and avoid trouble he could get there, but like Scheckter, that is a big if.

Marlboro Team Penske is the only team that has been able to beat AGR this season, but this is Indy and despite sitting on the front row, the Toyota is simply not the engine to have. Granted this team does all their own engine work, but as much as I like Sam and Julio I just don’t think they can bring home the bacon.

Whatever happened to Target/Chip Ganassi Racing? Well it looks like the Toyota just can’t keep up with the Honda’s. They have qualified poorly all season and it looks as though Scott Dixon is still dealing with not getting the Williams ride last year. He has been terrible. Darren Manning is back for the second time and hasn’t fared much better. Rookie Ryan Briscoe had to qualify on the second weekend because of a crash the week before. This team is down right now and I don’t see any end to their problems any time soon.

The Fernandez Racing stable is an interesting situation. Adrian is running the team of Scott Sharp and Kosuke Matsura. Meanwhile he has teamed with Mo Nunn for a ride in Sunday race. Last season AF really came on strong at the end of the season, but this year he hasn’t even really raced since because of a lack of funds. Still he has to be considered a threat. Kosuke has had a rough year and is probably anxious to get back in everyone’s good graces, but I don’t see him as a potential winner. Scott Sharp is a definite threat. He is starting in P3 and has a good car. Scott Sharp would be a hugely popular winner with the IRL fans.

Newman/Haas is sending Bruno and Seabass over for the one off 500. Bitter old Paul Newman still won’t make the trip. Good riddance you old goat. As far as the team goes they are a threat. Bruno has run well here and if the rain would have occurred 15 minutes earlier or later last year he may have won. Seabass has only come into Champ Car and won everything in site. He seemed to struggle early on in May and looked a little frightened. I don’t see a win, but a good finish could be in the cards.

The rest of the field looks like also-rans.

AJ has IV, Larry and Mike in the show. Mike has the experience, but he is starting last and his chances in that car are pretty much nil. Still, look for him to finish ahead of his team mates. Dreyer and Reinbold bring Roger Yasukawa and Jeff Bucknum. Roger has been here before and may surprise with his finish, but he won’t win. Bucknum, the 41 year old rookie has not shown anything.One of the biggest disappointments has to be Red Bull Team Cheever. Eddie is clearly out of his element as a car owner. He burnt his bridge with Buddy Rice a couple of years ago, ran off Tomas Scheckter and now his team of Alex Barron and Patrick Carpentier are among the slowest on the grid. Carpentier has even been rumored to be on his way out as word of conflicts between him and Eddie have been making the rounds. This team would have to pull the upset of the century to make the end of the race, let alone see victory lane.

Vision Racing is just a joke. A lot of people want them to fail, but their reasons are not all the same. Some just hate FTRG and want to stick it to him. Others want to see him fail so he can see how it works in the IRL and to see how tough it is for the little guy. He is going to fail. I like Jeff Ward’s tenacity and drive, but in this car it looks like he would need divine intervention to win. Special Ed is probably still in over his head in an Indy Car.

Sam Schmidt’s driver, Richie Hearn has been here enough to know his way around, but he won’t win. Look for Sammy’s team to pull a decent finish. Playa del Racing has Jacques Lazier aboard. They should have a decent run, but don’t look for them in the top three at the end of the race.

“Momma wants you” Marty Roth has to be considered one of the real longshots to win this thing. And finally Jimmy Kite, who is replacing the injured Paul Dana is probably going to be lapped by the 1/10 mark of the race.

So in order of chance they have to win, here is my lineup for Sunday. As a gauge, if you are listed below Scotty D I really don't think you have a chance to win.

TK
Scheckter
Vitor
Dan W
Bruno
Scott S
Kenny
AF
Sam
Julio
Buddy
Dario
Patrick
Seabass
Enge
Mike
Herta
Manning
Scotty D
Jacques Lazier
Hearn
Disco Briscoe
Kosuke
Roger Yasukawa
Alex Barron
Patrick Carpentier
AJ IV
Larry Foyt
Jeff Ward
Kite
Roth
Jeff Bucknum
Ed Carpenter